Crude oil prices have dropped globally, but fuel prices and transport fares in Nigeria remain unchanged.
Also there are heightened concerns among Nigerians over the implication of that on their purchasing power and inflation in the country.
Stakeholders are now calling for a cut at the pump, while marketers say Nigerians should be patient as it takes time for lower crude costs to reflect at filling stations.
Brent crude has fallen to approximately $77–$78 per barrel following the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and expectations that oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually normalize.
Analysts have noted that crude oil prices are currently under downward pressure, although geopolitical risks remain.
Current projections suggest that Brent crude may trade within the range of $75–$82 per barrel this week, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is expected to trade between $72–$79 per barrel.
But most Independent marketers in Lagos and environs still sell fuel between N1,235 and N1,300 per litre despite the recent reduction in the pump price of the product by the Dangote Refinery.
Confirming this, Clement Isong, Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria’s Executive Secretary/CEO, said while Hormuz’s reopening is positive for global energy markets, its impact on supply stability and pricing will lag for several months.
He added: “Given the expected lag of several months, it remains critical that Nigeria strengthens domestic supply resilience to meet the energy demands of its population.”
A commercial driver, Aremu Mukaila, who plies Costain to Ikeja lamented that he still bought fuel at old price on Sunday, adding that there’s no cogent reason for him to reduce the fare in spite of drop in crude oil price.
Rasak Aremu, a trader in Idumota area of Lagos, also complained that the huge transport fare has taken a heavy toll on his small scale business.
Stakeholders in Nigeria’s economy have implored refiners, depot owners, and fuel importers to reduce their prices.
The National President of The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, (PETROAN), Billy Gillis-Harry, stated that the recent decline in global crude oil prices presents an opportunity for stakeholders in the downstream petroleum sector to pass the benefits of lower crude oil costs to Nigerian consumers.
He emphasized that market realities should be reflected in both ex-depot and retail pump prices in the interest of fairness and economic relief for the public.
He expressed concern that, in some instances, the landing cost of imported petroleum products appears to be lower than the prices offered by domestic refiners.
According to him, this development is surprising and underscores the need for a more competitive downstream petroleum market that guarantees consumers access to the most affordable products available.
He implored the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to continue issuing import licences to qualified marketers.
He explained that increased competition among suppliers would help moderate prices, discourage monopolistic tendencies, and ensure a steady supply of petroleum products across the country.
In order to further encourage competition that will benefit consumers, PETROAN also called on the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Limited, Engr. Bayo Ojulari, to facilitate talks with the two Chinese firms that have expressed interest in operating the Port Harcourt and Warri Refineries.
In a recent social media post, an analyst, Gbolahan Ogundimu maintained that petrol should be sold around N678/Litre at $78/barrel crude
He arrived at N678/litre using the current Brent price of $78/bbl and current exchange rate of N1,550/$.
He added: “Dangote Refinery is producing locally. We no longer pay for shipping 67,000MT vessels from Rotterdam at $40/tonne.
“Forex pressure is reduced. If Dangote sells in Naira, NNPCL and marketers don’t need $500M/month to import fuel.
“That stabilizes the naira. Crude at $78 vs $114. When crude was $114 in 2022, landing cost was N₦1,200/L. At $78, crude cost alone drops by 31%. That must reflect at the pump.
“Dangote and NNPCL are still pricing based on “import parity” – meaning they benchmark against imported fuel even when they don’t import. That keeps prices at N1,300+ even when the fundamentals have changed.”
