Nigeria is setting its sights on producing 2.5 million barrels of crude oil per day by 2026 as part of a bold reform plan to reposition its oil and gas industry for growth, transparency, and long-term sustainability.
The Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Gbenga Komolafe, announced on Thursday.
Komolafe, who unveiled the new upstream roadmap at the 2025 Energy Correspondents Association of Nigeria Conference in Abuja, said the production target will be achieved through the commission’s Project One Million Barrels Initiative, launched in 2024, which focuses on reactivating dormant oil wells, expediting regulatory approvals, and boosting operational efficiency.
He said Nigeria’s current unreconciled daily production hovers between 1.7 million and 1.83 million barrels per day, noting that ongoing reforms and regulatory interventions are already restoring investor confidence and driving gradual output recovery.
“Through our Project One Million Barrels Initiative, launched in 2024, Nigeria is actively ramping up crude oil production by reactivating dormant fields, fast-tracking regulatory approvals, and enhancing operational efficiencies across the upstream value chain.
“With a clear target of increasing production to 2.5 million bpd by 2026, the initiative has already demonstrated strong momentum with current unreconciled daily production averaging 1.7 – 1.83 million bpd,” Komolafe said.
Recall that on Tuesday, the regulatory commission announced plans to commence the 2025 Licensing Round, effective December 1, 2025, aimed at unlocking Nigeria’s undeveloped and fallow oil and gas fields, with a particular focus on gas assets.
He stated that there are new frontier opportunities in onshore, shallow water and deep offshore blocks, especially in underexplored basins, enabled by its new licensing rounds regime.
“There are also other vast and compelling transformative opportunities, particularly in natural gas development, gas-to-power initiatives, Liquefied Natural Gas projects, FLNGs and Compressed Natural Gas transportation infrastructure, aimed at enhancing both export capacity and domestic energy supply,” he said.
The NUPRC chief noted that the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 remains a watershed reform that has redefined the governance and fiscal architecture of the oil and gas sector, setting new benchmarks for accountability, transparency, and competitiveness.
According to him, the commission has issued 19 key regulations to operationalise the Act, strengthen investor confidence, and create a stable environment for exploration and production growth.
“We have introduced a new royalty regime and tax incentives, including zero hydrocarbon tax for qualified projects.
“These reforms are designed to attract fresh capital and ensure the financial viability of upstream projects, especially in frontier basins,” Komolafe explained.
He further disclosed that approvals for 37 new evacuation routes and enhanced collaboration with security agencies have led to a marked decline in oil theft and pipeline vandalism, long-standing challenges that have constrained Nigeria’s revenue and export capacity.
“The enforcement of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation is also ensuring consistent feedstock for local refineries, strengthening domestic supply chains and promoting energy security,” he said.
Komolafe reaffirmed that the commission’s long-term strategy aligns with Nigeria’s commitment to a gas-driven energy transition, anchored on flagship initiatives such as the Decade of Gas, the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme, and the Presidential CNG Initiative.
He said these programmes aim to eliminate routine gas flaring by 2030 and reduce methane emissions by 60 per cent by 2031, while unlocking over 600 trillion cubic feet of gas resources for industrialisation and cleaner energy use.
“Our gas-centric energy transition reflects a global shift toward cleaner fuels.
“Nigeria is uniquely positioned to lead Africa’s gas industrialisation drive, leveraging our 209 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves and significant infrastructure expansion,” Komolafe said.
He added that the commission’s Upstream Decarbonisation Framework and Blueprint integrates emissions monitoring, carbon capture, and access to climate finance, thereby aligning Nigeria’s upstream operations with global sustainability standards.
The NUPRC boss also highlighted the ongoing digital transformation agenda aimed at simplifying regulatory processes and improving efficiency.
The revitalised National Data Repository, described as Africa’s largest petroleum data bank, now enables seamless access to geological and operational data for investment decision-making.
He said the Host Community Development Trusts, implemented through the Commission’s HostComply digital platform, have brought unprecedented transparency to community engagement, reducing conflicts and reinforcing operators’ social licence to operate.
“Hydrocarbons still account for nearly 90 per cent of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings and 70 per cent of government revenue,” Komolafe noted. “But sustainability now defines competitiveness, and that is why our reforms are integrating environmental and social responsibility at every level.”
Speaking at the same event, the Chief Executive Officer of the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria, Muhammad Al-Amin Kassim, urged stakeholders to sustain the reform momentum under the PIA to ensure tangible benefits for Nigerians.
He praised the establishment of the NUPRC and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority for improving governance, but warned that bureaucratic bottlenecks and capacity gaps still pose challenges.
“The PIA has brought structure and predictability, but effective implementation is key,” Kassim said.
“We need stronger coordination among agencies, public-private collaboration, and measurable outcomes to make the reforms count.”
Kassim proposed a six-point action plan centred on capacity development, streamlined processes, fair competition, and community inclusion, stressing that Nigeria’s immediate priority should be expanding access to affordable energy.
Earlier in his remarks, ECAN Chairman John Ofikhenua described the conference as a platform to evaluate the PIA’s four-year journey and reignite national dialogue around its implementation.
“This is not just an event; it is the beginning of a national conversation at the heart of Nigeria’s development story,” Ofikhenua said. “Before the PIA, our oil and gas industry was trapped in inefficiency and uncertainty. Decisions were made by discretion, not law. The Act has brought structure and accountability.”
He recalled that the passage of the PIA in 2021, after more than two decades of legislative delays, was a triumph of persistence by reform-minded leaders and stakeholders.
“The PIA was no accident; it was born from years of frustration and resilience,” Ofikhenua said. “But as we celebrate its achievements, we must also confront its gaps and adapt to global realities like the energy transition and digital transformation.”
Before the enactment of the PIA in August 2021, Nigeria’s oil and gas sector was plagued by policy inconsistencies, opaque fiscal regimes, and chronic underinvestment. The introduction of the Act, which split the former Department of Petroleum Resources into the NUPRC and NMDPRA, was designed to restore confidence, curb corruption, and modernise the regulatory framework.
Since then, the NUPRC has taken the lead in implementing key reforms, including the licensing of new exploration blocks, the enforcement of community development obligations, and the rollout of digital tools to enhance transparency.
The Commission’s new 2.5 million barrels per day target marks a crucial test of Nigeria’s post-PIA capacity to deliver measurable results amid a volatile global oil market and rising domestic energy demand.
Meanwhile, in the last four years of the enactment of the PIA, the Federal Government has issued 23 refinery licenses to establish.’
The Authority Chief Executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, Ahmed Farouk, represented by the Director of Legal Services, Tolurosho Joseph, said that upon completion, the plants would add over 850,000 barrels per stream day to the existing 1.125 million bpsd national refining capacity.
He said, “23 refineries ‘License To Establish’ were issued from 2021 to date, which, when constructed and commissioned, will add over 850,000bpsd refining capacity to the existing 1,125,000bpsd capacity.”
He said crude oil supply to domestic refineries rose from about 20,000bpd in 2023 to above 40,000bpd in 2025.
