Oil prices fell on Monday as traders watched for a recovery in shipments from Saudi Arabia, even after weekend attacks by Iran-backed Houthis with missiles and drones.
Brent crude futures for November delivery dropped 1.71% to $102.09 a barrel as of 2:53 a.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for October shed 1.96% to $98.33 per barrel.
The fall came despite the escalation in Middle East tensions. Markets are betting that supply will hold up better than the headlines suggest.
Flows hold up despite pipeline disruption
JPMorgan analysts said in a Sept. 18 note that Middle East oil flows remain surprisingly strong despite the disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline.
The bank put total oil flows at an average of 17.1 million barrels per day over the past 10 days, which is 6.1 million bpd below the 2025 average.
That gap shows the market is still running below normal levels, but not enough to trigger a sustained price spike.
Traders are treating the weekend attacks as a risk to watch rather than a supply shock already in motion.
U.S. President Donald Trump said he is in a deciding mode and that very big things are going to happen in the near future regarding the US-Iran war, in an interview with Fox News.
My question is, if and when do I blow the entire nation up? They better behave, Trump added.
The comments add a layer of uncertainty to an already tense market. Any military escalation involving Iran would put shipping routes and export infrastructure back under the spotlight.
What analysts expect next
Daniel Takieddine, co-founder and CEO of Sky Links Capital Group, expects prices to remain closely tied to the pace of export normalization and diplomatic progress.
Any setback or renewed deterioration in shipping conditions would tighten the physical market and restore upward pressure on prices, Takieddine said.
For now, the physical market is looser than the geopolitical noise suggests. That is why prices gave up ground on Monday instead of rallying.
What it means for Nigeria
Brent is the reference for Nigeria’s crude grades, so the direction of the global benchmark feeds directly into the country’s dollar earnings. A softer Brent means less foreign exchange flowing in from oil sales, which puts pressure on the naira and on the federation account, even when output volumes hold steady.
On the other side, lower crude prices ease landing costs for imported fuel and other inputs, a small relief for businesses battling high operating costs.
